• Bitcoin hovers around $73,000 on Thursday, driven by the US Stock market recovery, boosting risk-on sentiment.
• Data shows analysts are mostly bullish on Bitcoin, citing renewed demand from institutional investors, on-chain holders, and the derivatives market.
• The 50-day EMA at $74,409 emerges as the immediate resistance level.

Bitcoin (BTC) crosses above $73,000 at press time on Thursday, extending gains after weeks of consolidation below $70,000, driven by the US Stock market recovery. Analysts hold an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, based on over $1 billion in inflows collected by US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) so far this week, which lifted risk-on sentiment across on-chain and derivatives markets. The technical outlook for BTC focuses on the sloping 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $74,409 as the immediate resistance.

Strong demand in US markets fuels Bitcoin recovery

The US-Iran war enters its sixth day with no signs of a reduction in the aerial strikes across the Middle East. The US Stock market sustained gains on Wednesday, as the US-listed ETFs have averaged over $9 million in daily inflows so far this year, totaling more than $380 billion. 

A similar demand is rising across Bitcoin ETFs, lifting the broader cryptocurrency market. The US spot BTC ETFs expanded holdings by $461.90 million on Wednesday, bringing total net assets to $93.14 billion. This inflow marked the third consecutive day of accumulation, bringing the total inflow to $1.14 billion so far this week. Typically, a boost in institutional inflows supports recovery and improves the broader market sentiment. If inflows persist through the rest of the week, Bitcoin could extend its recovery into a higher leg.

On-chain, retail demand follows the suite

On the on-chain side, large wallet investors are expanding their holdings, mirroring the institutional moves. Santiment data shows that investors with 10,000 to 100,000 BTC hold 2.26 million BTC or 11.32% of the circulating supply, up from 2.24 million BTC on Wednesday. This suggests that cohorts with large BTC holdings, popularly known as whales, anticipate further recovery in Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market experiences a boost in retail interest. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin Open Interest at $49.67 billion on Thursday, up from $43.95 billion the previous day, suggesting increased leverage or positional buildup. Typically, an increase in OI during a recovery supports the upside movement.

Additionally, the Coinbase premium index at 0.0227% suggests that US retail investors are willing to buy Bitcoin at a premium over the global market average, as previously reported by FXStreet.

Analysts see the Bitcoin glass half-full 

Data from Unbias, which tracks top crypto analysts, shows an overall optimism in the market, projecting a 77% bullish case over the last three days based on the strong ETF accumulation. Meanwhile, the 23% bearish case highlights the Bitcoin correlation risk with US tech stocks, which saw outflows of over $388 million in February. 

Technical outlook: Will Bitcoin extend gains above $75,000?

Bitcoin trades above $73,000 at press time on Thursday, extending gains after consolidating below $70,000 for roughly three weeks. The Crypto King holds a mildly bullish bias as it inches closer to the downward-sloping 50-day EMA at $74,409. 

If Bitcoin clears this level, it could test the 50% trend-based Fibonacci retracement level at $78,258, measured between the October 6 high of $126,199, November 21 low at $80,600, and the January 14 high at $97,924. Beyond this, the 100-day EMA at $81,820 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $88,092 rest as overhead resistances.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) rises above its signal line toward the zero line on the daily chart as positive histograms widen, suggesting rising bullish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57 on the same chart, pointing higher and indicating that buyers are regaining control.

On the flip side, if Bitcoin fails to close the day above $74,409, it would leave BTC vulnerable to consolidation. The immediate support for Bitcoin is at the $70,000 round figure, and a daily close below this level would expose downside risk to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $68,839. 

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)