• Bitcoin extends its recovery, trading above $61,000 on Thursday after dipping to a 21-month low the previous day.
• Improving risk sentiment follows as Qatari mediators report “positive progress” in indirect US-Iran talks in Doha.
• Institutional sell-off remains robust, with spot ETFs recording an outflow of over $294 million on Wednesday, extending the negative streak.

Bitcoin (BTC) is extending its recovery, trading above $61,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after slipping to a 21-month low the previous day. Reports of positive progress in indirect US-Iran talks in Doha lift investor confidence, supporting BTC’s rebound. However, persistent institutional selling continues to weigh on the market, with US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) logging another day of outflows.

Progress in US-Iran peace talks lifts risk appetite 

Improving geopolitical sentiment helped lift risk appetite, supporting a modest recovery in Bitcoin. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said the US and Iran had made “positive progress” in indirect talks held in Doha, with discussions advancing issues related to the June ceasefire memorandum. 

The spokesperson added that negotiators were “building on the outcomes” of a recent summit in Switzerland, raising hopes for a more durable peace agreement.

US President Donald Trump has echoed these comments, adding that the talks delivered some progress on the possible limits to Iran’s nuclear program and that the “denuclearization of the country is moving along well”. US Vice President JD Vance, on the other hand, said that the nuclear matter will be addressed at a later time.

The next meeting will take place after funeral processions for ​Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is due to be buried on July 9, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said.

The status of the key Strait of Hormuz, however, remains in the air. Traffic through the corridor has increased significantly, contributing to fuel investors’ optimism, but it remains far from the 160 ships that used to cross the waterway before the conflict started.

Traders should keep a watch on the Middle East’s ongoing developments, as the fragile situation continues to pose a risk to market sentiment. In any case, the recent diplomatic progress appears to have provided near-term support for risk assets such as BTC.

Institutional selling continues

Despite the recent rebound, Institutional demand continues to weaken. SoSoValue data show that spot BTC ETFs recorded an outflow of $294.62 million on Wednesday, marking the tenth consecutive day of withdrawals. If this outflow trend continues this week, BTC could see further correction.

US NFP data could bring in fresh volatility for BTC

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. With investors pricing in a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the underlying details of the employment report could influence the timing of a possible interest rate increase. 

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that private sector employment in the US rose by 98K in June, down from the previous month’s unrevised reading of 122K and missing consensus estimates of 113K. Furthermore, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI eased from 54 to 53.3 in June. The Prices Paid subcomponent fell to 73 from 82.1, signaling inflation pressures are easing, while the Employment Index edged up to 49.7 from 48.6 in May. 

Expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain a headwind for risk assets. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool below indicates that traders are still pricing in around a 63% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September and assigning a nearly 84% probability of such a move by the end of this year. 

The bets were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on Wednesday, saying that he will stick to the 2% inflation target and disappoint anyone who expects loose monetary policy despite ​President Donald Trump’s call for rate cuts. Moreover, several Fed officials have indicated that higher interest rates may be necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target. The prospect of tighter monetary policy could support the US Dollar and Treasury yields, potentially capping Bitcoin’s upside.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Extends recovery following 21-month low

Bitcoin price extends its recovery, trading around $61,000 on Thursday, after rebounding from a 21-month low of $57,800 the previous day. However, BTC maintains a bearish bias, as it decisively holds below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $66,170, $69,972, and $75,913, respectively. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is back in positive territory, hinting at some recovery attempts. Yet, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 still suggests subdued momentum, reinforcing the idea that rallies are likely to be capped by overhead supply rather than initiating a sustained bullish trend.

On the topside, the first key barrier emerges at the recent horizontal level near $64,004, ahead of the 50-day EMA at $66,170, which aligns with a broader cluster of dynamic resistance comprising the 100-day EMA at $69,972 and the 200-day EMA at $75,913. A more distant structural cap is seen at $84,410.

On the downside, a failure to reclaim the $64,000 area would leave BTC vulnerable to renewed pressure targeting the key psychological level at $55,000.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)