• EUR/USD meets with heavy supply as USD strengthens after Trump’s Iran war update.
• Firming Fed rate hike bets further benefit the USD and back the case for deeper losses.
• The intraday failure near the 200-period EMA on the H4 validates the negative outlook.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days, reaching the weekly top the previous day, and attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices drop below the 1.1550 level in the last hour amid the emergence of fresh buying around the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) as US President Donald Trump's update on the Iran war dampens de-escalation hopes.

Addressing the nation, Trump threatened that Iran would be hit extremely hard over the next two to three weeks and would be brought to the Stone Age if no deal is reached. Trump further added that Iranian energy infrastructure remains a possible target, triggering a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and fueling inflationary concerns. This, in turn, bolsters bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and turns out to be another factor supporting the USD, which is seen exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the failure to find acceptance above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and a pullback from the 1.1620-1.1625 supply zone favors bearish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips back toward the zero line after a brief positive extension, with the histogram contracting and hinting at fading bullish momentum. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases to around 50, reinforcing a loss of directional conviction after failing to sustain overbought proximity earlier in the move.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at 1.1520, guarding the recent reaction low near 1.1485, where a break would expose the 1.1450 zone as the next downside objective. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at 1.1580 ahead of the 1.1610–1.1620 band, where prior swing highs converge with the 200-period exponential moving average to define a key barrier. A sustained move above this upper resistance zone would be needed to revive a clear bullish bias, while failure to hold 1.1520 would shift focus back toward the mid-1.1400s.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart