EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above mid-1.1300s amid Hormuz risks, bearish setup

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The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest recovery gains and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, hold above mid-1.1300s and the lowest level since May 2025, set on Thursday, warranting some caution for bearish traders.

EUR/USD struggles to lure buyers on Friday as Hormuz risks support the safe-haven USD.
Receding Fed rate hike bets keep a lid on the USD appreciation and limit losses for the pair.
The bearish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz reignite worries about the sustainability of an interim US-Iran peace deal and support the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, traders trimmed their bets for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year amid expectations that inflation likely peaked last month or is ‌close to doing so in the face of the recent fall in Crude Oil prices. This caps the upside for the USD and helps limit any further downside for the EUR/USD pair.

The recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the EUR/USD pair's inability to gain any meaningful traction favor bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 hints at a gradual recovery from oversold conditions rather than a bullish shift.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has now turned modestly positive, though the EUR/USD pair remains structurally pressured in the near-term. This, in turn, suggests that any meaningful recovery attempt might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

Immediate resistance is located at the 1.1440 region, and a break above could lift the EUR/USD pair back to the 100-period SMA at 1.1514. A move beyond this hurdle is needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more meaningful correction higher. Until then, the pair seems vulnerable to test fresh lows.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	-0.05%	-0.10%	-0.06%	0.25%	0.14%	-0.08%
EUR	0.02%		-0.05%	-0.06%	-0.02%	0.27%	0.12%	-0.06%
GBP	0.05%	0.05%		0.00%	0.00%	0.32%	0.19%	-0.02%
JPY	0.10%	0.06%	0.00%		0.02%	0.33%	0.19%	-0.01%
CAD	0.06%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%		0.31%	0.16%	-0.05%
AUD	-0.25%	-0.27%	-0.32%	-0.33%	-0.31%		-0.13%	-0.35%
NZD	-0.14%	-0.12%	-0.19%	-0.19%	-0.16%	0.13%		-0.20%
CHF	0.08%	0.06%	0.02%	0.00%	0.05%	0.35%	0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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