HSBC Global Research highlights that EUR/USD has been steady despite EU–US trade uncertainty, with much US policy risk already priced. The bank expects the pair to move back toward the upper end of its recent range without breaking higher. Fiscal expansion and production recovery support the Euro, but limited wage growth and credit dynamics cap the upside.

Euro seen gravitating toward range top

"EUR-USD remains stable despite ongoing uncertainty over EU-US trade policy."

"With EURUSD trading above interest rate differentials, much of the US policy risk appears to be priced in."

"Over the coming weeks, we look for EUR-USD to drift back to the upper end of its trading range but not establish new highs."

"Expansionary fiscal measures and recovering production offer some upside, but without stronger wage growth or a pronounced credit cycle, a significant EUR rally is unlikely."

"The European Central Bank’s (ECB) influence on the EUR remains limited, with no rate changes anticipated through 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)