• GBP/USD holds near 1.3360 as Middle East tensions keep risk appetite fragile.
• Rising Oil prices lift the Dollar, with WTI up over 2.7% and DXY near 99.77.
• US jobless claims matched forecasts, leaving geopolitics as the main market driver.

The GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3360 on Thursday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump exerts pressure on Iran to reach a deal. Solid US jobs data maintained the status quo, which remains controlled by geopolitics. At the time of writing, the pair remains virtually unchanged.

Sterling trades flat as geopolitics overshadow data, keeping the US Dollar underpinned

Risk appetite turned sour after the US President Donald Trump said Iran to “get serious soon” before it's too late, as he acknowledged that Iranian negotiators are “very different” and “strange.” He said that, privately, they're begging for a deal, while publicly they say they’re looking at the proposal.

Earlier, Axios reported that the US Pentagon is preparing for a “final blow” against Iran, which would include the use of ground forces.

In the meantime, the US Dollar remains bid due to its positive correlation with Oil prices, with WTI, the US Crude Oil benchmark, gaining over 2.70% at $93.85 per barrel. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six currencies, is up 0.14% at 99.77.

Meanwhile, traders worried that the energy shock sparked by the Middle East conflict is pushing gasoline and gas prices higher and expect that major central banks will keep interest rates steady or raise them in the near term. This, along with the deceleration of economic activity, keeps the stagflationary scenario looming.

In the US, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 21 came at 210K as expected by analysts, up from the previous print of 205K. This reaffirms that the labor market remains solid and that the Fed could focus on the price stability mandate.

Ahead, eyes are on speeches by a handful of Federal Reserve officials, led by Governors Lisa Cook, Stephen Miran, Philip Jefferson and Michael Barr. Along with them, the Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will cross the wires.

In the UK, traders eye the release of the GfK Consumer Confidence for March, expected to deteriorate from -19 to -24.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3360. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.35 and continues to oscillate under the descending resistance trend line from 1.3869, indicating sellers remain in control on rallies. The rising support trend line from 1.3035 is losing immediate influence with price now pressed against its lower zone, suggesting downside pressure is challenging the broader uptrend structure.

Initial resistance aligns near 1.3430, where prior highs converge with the overhead moving average group, followed by the descending trend-line region around 1.3500, which caps the upside unless decisively broken. On the downside, immediate support sits at the recent 1.3340 area, with a break exposing the mid-1.32s, where prior lows cluster near 1.3220 as the next key level if bearish momentum extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)