Deutsche Bank analysts note a strong upside surprise in German manufacturing orders, up 7.8% MoM on defence and transport-related demand, with underlying orders ex‑large items also rising. Construction PMIs weakened on bad weather, but healthy order books suggest a spring rebound. Industrial production fell in December, especially in autos and machinery, though defence-related output provided some offset.

Defence-led orders versus weather hit

"Germany's new manufacturing orders provided a significant upside surprise, surging 7.8% MoM."

"The underlying trend also showed strength, with orders excluding large items still rising by a healthy 1% MoM."

"In contrast, the construction sector showed a temporary slowdown, with the January PMI reading falling to 44.7."

"The outlook for the sector remains positive, however, as order intake is reported to be healthy."

"This suggests a rebound in construction activity can be expected in the spring months as weather conditions improve."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)