Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the RBNZ to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% this week, while swaps price 125 bps of tightening over the next year. Haddad anticipates the updated OCR track will signal a more muted cycle and sees scope for lower New Zealand rate expectations, keeping NZD/USD confined to a 0.5800-0.6000 range.

Muted tightening path caps New Zealand Dollar

"The RBNZ is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% for a third straight meeting."

"The swaps market implies a 25bps RBNZ rate hike at the July 8 meeting, and a total of 125bps of tightening over the next twelve months to 3.50%."

"The RBNZ updated OCR path will likely remain consistent with a more muted tightening cycle, totaling 75bps of hikes by 2029."

"Bottom line: scope for a downward adjustment to NZ rate expectations is a headwind for NZD."

"NZD/USD should continue to trade within a narrow 0.5800-0.6000 range in the near term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)