BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Oil initially spiked on renewed U.S.–Iran tensions before easing, but analysts remain concerned about supply risks and the durability of any peace deal. Rystad Energy warns of sharply higher prices, while low unfinished stocks and ongoing inventory drawdowns in the U.S. underline tightness. WTI forward prices remain below May highs but above March–April lows.

Geopolitics and tight stocks support Oil

"The overnight reaction of oil markets to the escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict leaves analysts worried about oil supply and the durability of the peace deal."

"Rystad Energy, for example, warns of $150/bbl oil."

"Another concern for U.S. oil products and costs is that unfinished oil stocks are at 1997 lows, likely limiting the current pace of refining."

"The U.S. has reported seven consecutive weeks of crude oil inventory declines and nine weeks of product drawdowns."

"WTI Oil six-month forward prices are $80.95 below the May highs of $87.80 but above $75 lows in March and April."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)