USD/JPY: Intervention risk and BoJ path guide downside – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/JPY’s sharp pullback after breaking 160 likely reflected real Japanese Yen (JPY)-buying intervention in thin Golden Week liquidity. They expect defending 160 will require larger action if Oil stays high, sees potential for the pair to trade in a 150–155 range near term, and keeps its end‑2026 USD/JPY target at 155 with a June BoJ hike likely.
Authorities lean against 160 while BoJ lags
"The sharp pullback after breaking above 160 drew market attention."
"Defending 160 will require larger action, especially if oil prices remain high."
"Further intervention could push USD/JPY into the 150 to 155 range, lifting Asian FX in the near term."
"Still, we remain cautious and keep our end-2026 USD/JPY target at 155."
"A June BoJ hike now looks likely, but policy still appears behind the curve, limiting JPY support."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
