• AUD/USD climbs to ten-month highs, benefiting from broad-based USD weakness ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.
• CFTC data show net speculative shorts in AUD futures eased to -79.2K, marking a second straight week of short covering.
• Focus shifts to US Retail Sales on Tuesday and Australia’s jobs report on Thursday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, extending its advance as the Greenback remains on the defensive. The move comes amid firm conviction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut at Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting, a scenario markets now view as a done deal.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades near 0.6672, its strongest level in more than ten months. The pair has benefited from broad-based USD weakness, as traders fully price in imminent Fed easing. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering above eight-week lows around 97.30.

Fresh positioning data reinforced the shift in sentiment. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report showed that net speculative short positions in AUD futures fell to around -79.2K contracts, compared with -82.7K previously. This marks the second straight week of reduced bearish exposure, driven partly by an uptick in long bets and short covering.

Market focus now turns to a heavy data calendar on both sides of the Pacific. In the US, Tuesday’s Retail Sales will be pivotal in gauging consumer strength ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

In Australia, Thursday’s employment report will be crucial for shaping Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy expectations. The central bank has flagged that the pace of any decline in the cash rate will largely be driven by labor market conditions, making this week’s jobs data particularly sensitive for the currency.