Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr spoke about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota in Golden Valley, and said that It's hard to judge at this point whether federal government shutdown will leave an imprint on overall economy. He also added that 2 more years would be a long time for consumers to wait for inflation to return to 2%.

Key Quotes

The fact that the job market balance is coming through slowing supply and hiring suggests vulnerability to shocks.

Since Fed's September meeting consumer spending has been strong, stronger PCE inflation has been confirmed and new tariffs announced.

Recent spending data suggest GDP growth remained strong in Q3.

Current outlook poses challenges for judging stance of monetary policy and deciding the right path forward.

Modest impact of tariffs on inflation so far likely means period of adjustment will continue longer as firms adapt.

Rate cut in September was appropriate. Current policy rate still modestly restrictive.

Low payroll growth could be a sign of worse to come, but sound continued growth and resilience could also lead to stronger hiring.

2 more years would be a long time for consumers to wait for inflation to return to 2%.

I'm skeptical that the Fed can completely look through tariff-driven inflation.

I expect Core PCE Price Index over 3% at end of this year.

Fed's inflation goal faces significant risks, but also some factors that might mitigate those risks."