Friday’s Pre-Session Technical Outlook – 24th September

EUR/USD:

Daily chart –

  • EUR/USD came in relatively strong on Thursday, just above lows at 1.1664. Above, the 50-day SMA (1.1786) may provide resistance if brought in, but we also need to account for resistance at 1.1897. Below 1.1664, support is seen at 1.1613.
  • [Underlined in previous text] It is important to remember the 50-day SMA crossed beneath the 200-day SMA in late July, which many will take on as a bearish signal.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD moved below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA). This follows a recent bearish signal line crossover: negative momentum.  

H1 chart –

  • After a brief spell below 1.1700, the price on the H1 is now above the 20/100-hour SMAs (1.1713/23) for price to test resistance at 1.1735.
  • The RSI touched overbought (70.00) in late hours on Thursday and is now around 60.00.  

Analyst perspective –

With the price finding support around lows at 1.1664, H1 resistance may not offer much at 1.1735, which could tempt a wave of buying to H1 resistance at 1.1769 and trendline resistance ([high] 1.1909).

GBP/USD:

Daily chart –

  • The GBP/USD traded strongly off support at 1.3611. Above, we have resistance at 1.3909/1.3855 and the 200/50-day SMAs (1.3836/1.3786).
  • [Underlined in previous text] The 50-day SMA recently crossed below the 200-day SMA, a bearish signal to many.
  • The pair has been entrenched within an uptrend since early 2020. But since late February, the market has been adrift.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD formed a bearish signal line crossover late last week, with the indicator also now slightly below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA): negative momentum.  

H1 chart –

  • As seen from the H1 chart, we moved above several resistances on Thursday, with the latest resistance broken at 1.3732, which is now being retested as support. If the price holds off this level, we can then possibly look to 1.3800.
  • The 20-hour SMA (1.3669) is close to crossing above the 100-hour SMA (1.3673).
  • The RSI is now high within overbought (70.00), which is where we might see sellers starting to show.  

Analyst perspective –

With the daily price showing room to approach the 200/50-day SMAs (1.3836/1.3786), there is a chance buyers try to defend support at 1.3732 on the H1 to try for 1.3800.

AUD/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Support at 0.7244 has gathered attention, which could see the price test the 50-day SMA (0.7327), while a move above this value could look for highs at 0.7478.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA (0.7596) in late July, which is a bearish signal for many traders.
  • [Underlined in previous text] Despite trending higher in 2020, 2021 has so far been disappointing.
  • [Underlined in previous text] We recently saw the MACD cross back below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA), and also the signal line (9-day EMA of MACD): negative momentum.

H1 chart –

  • The H1 shows Thursday jumped above resistance at 0.7271 and is now seeing price test 0.7300. Above, resistance at 0.7344 is seen.
  • The 20-hour SMA (0.7263) also crossed above the 100-hour SMA (0.7253).
  • The RSI is testing overbought (70.00), which is a place we could see the sellers make a move.  

Analyst perspective –

From the H1 timeframe, 0.7300 is looking weak right now and could open the door to a bullish move towards resistance at 0.7344.

The above is strengthened by the daily timeframe showing room to reach the 50-day SMA (0.7327).

USD/JPY:

Daily chart –

  • Price moved above the 50-day SMA (109.84) on Thursday, with resistance now seen at 110.59. If the price fails to hold above the SMA, we will be watching lows around 109.09.
  • [Underlined in previous text] Price, despite the recent ranging action, has been trending higher since 2021.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD has offered unclear signals since the beginning of September as the indicator fluctuates above and below the centre line. We need more of a defined move to form before making any judgement.

H1 chart –

  • With the rise in USD/JPY on Thursday, we cleared the 110.00 level and are now close to resistance at 110.35/23.
  • The 20-hour SMA (109.93) is also firmly above the 100-hour SMA (109.65).
  • The RSI is now in the overbought (70.00) area, which could see resistance come in around 77.00.

Analyst perspective –

There’s a strong chance the H1 tests resistance at 110.35/23, which is joined with an RSI overbought signal (70.00). The concern is the daily timeframe shows space to ride for resistance at 110.59. As such, a reaction from 110.35/23 may only reach 110.00.

XAU/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Support at $1,754 is now looking very weak. Lower levels from here could see support at $1,670/83 come in. Above support, though, the 200/50-day SMAs are seen at $1,806/$1,791.
  • [Underlined in previous text] August 2020 saw a top form and subsequent declines have since ensued.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD moved below the centreline (12-day EMA crossing below the 26-day EMA), and also recently put up a bearish signal line crossover: negative momentum.

H1 chart –

  • We are now testing support at $1,749 after the price rushed below the 100/20-hour SMAs ($1.764/63) and resistance at $1,767. Below $1,749, support is at $1,738.
  • The RSI moved into oversold (30.00).  

Analyst perspective –

With the daily chart showing price looking below support at $1,754, this forecasts a possible break of H1 support at $1,749, with H1 support at $1,738 targeted.

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