Thursday’s Pre-Session Technical Outlook – 23rd September

EUR/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Lows at 1.1664 and support is seen at 1.1613 on the daily chart. Above, the 50-day SMA (1.1789) may provide resistance if brought in, but we also need to account for resistance at 1.1897.
  • [Underlined in previous text] It is important to remember the 50-day SMA crossed beneath the 200-day SMA in late July, which many will take on as a bearish signal.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD moved below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA). This follows a recent bearish signal line crossover: negative momentum.  

H1 chart –

  • The EUR/USD is now above support at 1.1735 and the 100-hour SMA (1.1736). Resistance is at 1.1769 which is also close to trendline resistance ([high] 1.1909).
  • The RSI is above 50.00 and possibly on its way to overbought (70.00).  

Analyst perspective –

If the H1 price holds above support at 1.1735, we are looking at a move to H1 resistance at 1.1769.

The above is strengthened by the daily price having space to rally to the 50-day SMA (1.1789).

GBP/USD:

Daily chart –

  • The GBP/USD traded close to support at 1.3611, with a break looking at another support at 1.3486. Above, we have resistance at 1.3909/1.3855 and the 200/50-day SMAs (1.3835/1.3788).
  • [Underlined in previous text] The 50-day SMA recently crossed below the 200-day SMA, a bearish signal to many.
  • The pair has been entrenched within an uptrend since early 2020. But since late February, the market has been adrift.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD formed a bearish signal line crossover late last week, with the indicator also now slightly below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA): negative momentum.  

H1 chart –

  • We have bounced from support at 1.3634, which is just above 1.3600. Price is now above the 20-hour SMA (1.3649) and also near trendline resistance ([high] 1.3913) as well as 1.3700 and the 100-hour SMA (1.3704).
  • The RSI is above 50.00 right now, telling chartists that we could be looking towards overbought (70.00).  

Analyst perspective –

With the daily price bouncing from just above support at 1.3611, H1 bulls are likely to try for the 1.3700 area.

AUD/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Support at 0.7244 appears to be gathering some attention. This came after last week saw the pair move below the 50-day SMA (0.7329). If we give up 0.7244, then lows at 0.7106 is seen as well as support at 0.6961/0.7043.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA (0.7600) in late July, which is a bearish signal for many traders.
  • [Underlined in previous text] Despite trending higher in 2020, 2021 has so far been disappointing.
  • [Underlined in previous text] We recently saw the MACD cross back below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA), and also the signal line (9-day EMA of MACD): negative momentum.

H1 chart –

  • On the H1 chart, we are rangebound between resistance at 0.7271 and support at 0.7225. Within these levels is also the 100/20-hour SMAs (0.7262/46).
  • The RSI is now above 50.00. If we get past resistance at 60.00, then overbought (70.00) is likely to be hit.

Analyst perspective –

The H1 range between 0.7271 and 0.7225 may be broken to the upside as the daily price is beginning to show some sign of life from support at 0.7244. A bullish breakout above 0.7271 may look to try for 0.7300.

USD/JPY:

Daily chart –

  • The 50-day SMA (109.83) continues to hog the attention on the daily chart as a resistance. Lows are seen around 109.09 and support at 108.41 along with the 78.6% Fib level at 108.35. Above the SMA is resistance at 110.59.
  • [Underlined in previous text] Price, despite the recent ranging action, has been trending higher since 2021.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD has offered unclear signals since the beginning of September as the indicator fluctuates above and below the centre line. We need more of a defined move to form before making any judgement.

H1 chart –

  • Support at 109.06/21, once again, saw the buyers come in on Wednesday and move the price above the 20-hour SMA (109.46) to test resistance at 109.61 and the 100-hour SMA (109.63). Above is resistance at 110.00.
  • The RSI is now above 50.00 with the possibility of reaching overbought soon (70.00).

Analyst perspective –

If we get above H1 resistance at 109.61 and the 100-hour SMA (109.63), then a move to 110.00 is possible. This is strengthened by the daily timeframe showing room to move to the 50-day SMA (109.83).

XAU/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Gold continues to hold gains off support at $1,754, which may see the metal test the 200/50-day SMAs at $1,806/$1,793, and maybe even resistance at $1,830. Below the support, support is at $1,670/83.
  • [Underlined in previous text] August 2020 saw a top form and subsequent declines have since ensued.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD moved below the centreline (12-day EMA crossing below the 26-day EMA), and also recently put up a bearish signal line crossover.

H1 chart –

  • The H1 price has kept quiet so far, though remained under resistance at $1,780. Support is seen at $1,767. Above, resistance is at $1,805.
  • What is also seen is the 20-hour SMA ($1,776) close by.
  • The RSI recently moved from overbought (70.00), and now trades at 60.00.

Analyst perspective –

OUTLOOK UNCHANGED

The reaction from H1 resistance at $1,780 could put up a test of H1 support at $1,767 for a possible move to H1 resistance at $1,805, which is close to the 200-day SMA ($1,806).

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