Wednesday’s Pre-Session Technical Outlook – 22nd September

EUR/USD:

Daily chart –

  • EUR/USD held its bearish move on Tuesday, coming off highs at 1.1749. Lows at 1.1664 and support is seen at 1.1613. Above, the 50-day SMA (1.1791) may provide resistance if brought in, but above here resistance is also seen at 1.1897.
  • [Underlined in previous text] It is important to remember the 50-day SMA crossed beneath the 200-day SMA in late July, which many will take on as a bearish signal.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD moved below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA). This follows a recent bearish signal line crossover.  

H1 chart –

  • Tuesday tried to get above resistance at 1.1735 but failed at session highs. We are now below the 20-hour SMA (1.1731) and looking at 1.1700.
  • The RSI moved below 50.00 on Tuesday and this means bears are controlling things for the moment. This could also see the RSI try for oversold (30.00).

Analyst perspective –

H1 resistance at 1.1735 holding the price is, as we mentioned yesterday, in line with the short-term downtrend since early September. With this, we may see the price try to push below 1.1700 and maybe even head for lows at 1.1664.

GBP/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Price action from the GBP/USD traded around yesterday’s lows on Tuesday, coming off highs of 1.3693.
  • Above, we have resistance at 1.3909/1.3855 and the 200/50-day SMAs (1.3833/1.3792). Though close by price is support around 1.3611 and also at 1.3486.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The 50-day SMA recently crossed below the 200-day SMA, a bearish signal to many.
  • The pair has been entrenched within an uptrend since early 2020. But since late February, the market has been adrift.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD formed a bearish signal line crossover late last week, with the indicator also now slightly below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA): negative momentum.  

H1 chart –

  • After turning just below 1.3700 on Tuesday, the H1 price is now below the 20-hour SMA (1.3668). Support is at 1.3634. Above 1.3700, resistance is at 1.3732 and also trendline resistance ([high] 1.3913).
  • The RSI is forming a dip off lows at 37.00 and is currently near the underside of 50.00.

Analyst perspective –

Like Tuesday’s analysis said, between daily support at 1.3611 and H1 support at 1.3634 is a place buyers could come in from and try for 1.3700 on the H1 and trendline resistance ([high] 1.3913).

AUD/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Support at 0.7244 appears very weak right now. This came after last week saw the pair move below the 50-day SMA (0.7334). If we give up 0.7244, then lows at 0.7106 is seen as well as support at 0.6961/0.7043.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA (0.7600) in late July, which is a bearish signal for many traders.
  • [Underlined in previous text] Despite trending higher in 2020, 2021 has so far been disappointing.
  • [Underlined in previous text] We recently saw the MACD cross back below the centreline (12-day EMA < 26-day EMA), and also the signal line (9-day EMA of MACD): negative momentum.

H1 chart –

  • The fact we saw resistance at 0.7271 hold on Tuesday reaffirms weakness around daily support at 0.7244. We are now bouncing from H1 support at 0.7225, with 0.7200 seen if we move lower. It is also worth saying that now we are below the 100/20-hour SMAs (0.7282/59).
  • The RSI moderately bounced from lows at 34.00 after turning from resistance around 60.00.

Analyst perspective –

Understanding that we’re seeing weakness around daily support at 0.7244, the chances of H1 support at 0.7225 holding are slim. This means a bearish opportunity could happen, with 0.7200 targeted. We could also see the price test the 20-hour SMA (0.7259) before moving lower.

USD/JPY:

Daily chart –

  • The 50-day SMA (109.84) continues to hog the attention on the daily chart as a resistance, as the price action once again dropped from the line on Monday and held around session lows on Tuesday. Lows are seen around 109.09 and support at 108.41 along with the 78.6% Fib level at 108.35.
  • [Underlined in previous text] Price, despite the recent ranging action, has been trending higher since 2021.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD has offered unclear signals since the beginning of September as the indicator fluctuates above and below the centre line. We need more of a defined move to form before making any judgement.

H1 chart –

  • Support at 109.06/21 is in the picture now after the price reacted from resistance at 109.61 and moved below the 100/20-hour SMAs (109.62/46). Although this is an area bulls have liked in the past and are showing signs of a reaction, we must account for the possibility of a drop to 109.00 here and possibly lower.
  • The RSI is seen bouncing from near oversold (30.00), a signal buyers may watch closely.  

Analyst perspective –

While the H1 support at 109.06/21 could bring in buyers, we can see sellers recently coming in from the 50-day SMA (109.84). This may push H1 sellers through 109.06/21 to 109.00.

XAU/USD:

Daily chart –

  • Gold bounced from support at $1,754, which may see the metal test the 200/50-day SMAs at $1,807/$1,794, and maybe even resistance at $1,830. Below, support is at $1,670/83.
  • [Underlined in previous text] August 2020 saw a top form and subsequent declines have since ensued.
  • [Underlined in previous text] The MACD moved below the centreline (12-day EMA crossing below the 26-day EMA), and also recently put up a bearish signal line crossover.

H1 chart –

  • The H1 price moved above resistance at $1,767 and tested resistance at $1,780. Above, resistance is at $1,805. What is also seen is $1,767 which is now support formed with the 100/20-hour SMAs ($1,767/66).
  • The RSI recently moved into overbought (70.00), which is a place sellers usually find interest in.

Analyst perspective –

The reaction from H1 resistance at $1,780 could put up a test of H1 support at $1,767 for a possible move to H1 resistance at $1,805, which is close to the 200-day SMA ($1,807).

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