The Fed Unveils Leaders of Five Reform Working Groups as "Team Warsh" Takes Shape
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has unveiled the full leadership team for the five working groups tasked with driving a comprehensive overhaul of the central bank. The 15 co-chairs, drawn from academia, business, and central banks around the world, form an exceptionally high-profile lineup.

The five working groups cover communications, balance sheet policy, data, productivity and employment, and the inflation framework. In the announcement, Warsh said: "The U.S. economy has changed dramatically over the course of a generation, and the pace of change has become even more significant in recent years. Each working group will carefully examine whether policymakers' tools, analytical frameworks, and policy approaches can be improved."

Working Group 1: Communications

Led by three veteran central bankers, the Communications Working Group is tasked with redefining how the Federal Reserve communicates. The group will review how the Fed conveys its policy deliberations and decisions during periods of heightened uncertainty.

The three co-chairs are:

Mervyn King: Former Governor of the Bank of England, who led the UK through the Global Financial Crisis. His appointment signals the Fed's intention to draw on the communication experience of one of the world's most established central banks.

Arminio Fraga: Former Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil, best known for defending central bank independence against political pressure. As Warsh faces continued pressure from the White House, Fraga's experience carries direct relevance.

Peter R. Fisher: Professor at Dartmouth College's Tuck School of Business and former executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The group's central mission is to address a question Warsh himself has repeatedly raised: Does the Federal Reserve still need forward guidance? Does it still need the dot plot? Does it still need lengthy policy statements? At his June FOMC debut, Warsh had already signaled his preference by shortening the policy statement from 344 words to 130, removing one dot from the dot plot, and abandoning forward guidance. The group's role is to turn those individual changes into a systematic framework.

Working Group 2: Balance Sheet

The Balance Sheet Working Group will examine the costs, benefits, and potential impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy on financial institutions. The three co-chairs are:

Raghuram Rajan: Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago and former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. He is widely recognized for warning about financial risks before the Global Financial Crisis.

Jeremy Stein: Professor of Economics at Harvard University and former Federal Reserve Governor.

Karen Dynan: Professor of Economics at Harvard University.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet currently stands at approximately $6.7 trillion. Warsh has made clear that he intends to reduce its size. The working group will address key questions including: How quickly should quantitative tightening proceed? Where should the balance sheet ultimately stabilize? What impact will it have on financial market liquidity?

Working Group 3: Data

The Data Working Group is responsible for improving the quality and timeliness of the real-economy signals used in Federal Reserve policymaking. This is one of Warsh's highest priorities. During his June press conference, he criticized traditional economic data as "echoes of history." The three co-chairs are:

Raj Chetty: Professor of Economics at Harvard University, renowned for using big data to track the economic well-being of American households.

Kevin Murphy: Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago.

Doug McMillon: Former President and CEO of Walmart.

McMillon's appointment is particularly noteworthy. Walmart possesses one of the largest real-time consumer datasets in the United States, capturing millions of daily transactions and sales across tens of millions of products. The granularity and timeliness of this information far exceed the government's monthly retail sales reports. If the Federal Reserve begins systematically incorporating private-sector data sources like these, the speed and quality of policy assessment could fundamentally improve.

Working Group 4: Productivity and Employment

The Productivity and Employment Working Group will assess the economic impact of emerging general-purpose technologies, including artificial intelligence. Warsh has repeatedly stated that AI has the potential to fundamentally reshape the U.S. economy. The three co-chairs are:

Marc Andreessen: Co-founder and General Partner of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). One of Silicon Valley's most influential technology investors, Andreessen was recently appointed to the U.S. Defense Policy Board. Warsh shares a particularly close relationship with Andreessen—they were classmates at Stanford University, and Warsh has described him as "a friend from college."

Charles I. Jones: Professor of Economics at Stanford University and currently affiliated with Anthropic.

Asha Sharma: Executive Vice President at Microsoft and CEO of Xbox.

The creation of this working group sends a clear signal that the Federal Reserve is taking AI's structural impact on the labor market seriously. If AI delivers the productivity gains that Warsh anticipates, it could reshape the Fed's understanding of "maximum employment," ultimately influencing future interest rate decisions.

Working Group 5: Inflation Framework

The Inflation Framework Working Group is responsible for reexamining the Federal Reserve's understanding of inflation drivers and the appropriate policy response. The three co-chairs are:

Greg Mankiw: Professor of Economics at Harvard University, former Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and author of the best-selling textbook Principles of Economics.

Thomas Sargent: Professor of Economics at New York University, recipient of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics, and one of the leading figures in the rational expectations school of economics.

William White: Senior Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute and former Economic Adviser at the Bank for International Settlements.

Mankiw and Sargent represent two generations and two major schools of macroeconomic thought. Their task is to reassess the drivers of inflation—while maintaining the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target—including supply shocks, monetary policy transmission, expectation formation, and how the central bank should respond.

The Logic Behind the Lineup: What Is Warsh Trying to Build?

First, external leadership. All five working groups are co-chaired by external advisers, while Federal Reserve staff will provide support. This is not a top-down internal reform effort but one that seeks to drive change by bringing in outside perspectives.

Second, a global perspective. Three former central bank governors—from the United Kingdom (King), Brazil (Fraga), and India (Rajan)—are participating simultaneously, an exceptionally rare occurrence in Federal Reserve history. The Fed is looking to learn from global peers on policy communication and decision-making under conditions of elevated uncertainty.

Third, a blend of academics and practitioners. Mankiw and Sargent represent academic excellence, Andreessen and McMillon bring cutting-edge business experience, while King and Rajan contribute central banking expertise. Warsh is seeking to combine theory with practical experience across every dimension of policymaking.

Fourth, the imprint of personal relationships. Many of these appointments clearly reflect Warsh's personal network. Andreessen was his Stanford classmate, several members have connections to the Hoover Institution, and others worked alongside Warsh during the George H. W. Bush administration. Rather than emerging from an open selection process, the lineup reflects a circle built on trust, familiarity, and long-standing professional relationships—what many would call "Team Warsh."

Sarah Chen specializes in foreign exchange markets with 12 years of experience in currency analysis and international economics. She holds an IMSc in Finance and Economics from the London School of Economics and provides weekly forex outlooks and daily currency pair analysis. In addition to market research, Sarah has written extensively for financial publications, producing educational articles and analytical reports for traders at all levels of expertise.
閱讀更多

實時報價

名稱 / 代碼
圖表
漲跌幅 / 價格
GBPUSD
1日漲跌幅
+0%
0
EURUSD
1日漲跌幅
+0%
0
USDJPY
1日漲跌幅
+0%
0

關於 FOREX 的一切

探索更多工具
交易學院
瀏覽涵蓋交易策略、市場洞察和金融基礎知識的廣泛教育文章,一站式學習。
瞭解更多
課程
探索結構化的交易課程,旨在支持您在交易旅程的每個階段的成長。
瞭解更多
網絡研討會
參加現場和點播網絡研討會,從行業專家那裡獲得實時市場洞察和交易策略。
瞭解更多