As America’s 250th Anniversary Approaches, Trump May Seek to Boost the Stock Market to Improve Poll Ratings
On June 22, less than two weeks remain before the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. A report published by Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir argues that Trump, facing weak approval ratings and driven by a strong desire to shape his political legacy, has a powerful incentive to deliver a series of market-friendly developments over the next two weeks in an effort to push US stocks to new record highs.

Since the beginning of June, multiple polling organizations have pointed to the same conclusion: Trump’s approval rating is hovering near the lowest level of his second term.

Taken together, recent surveys place his approval rating between 36% and 39%. For a president who secured re-election in 2024, that figure means that more than 60% of voters disapprove of his job performance.

The primary reason behind the weak approval ratings remains the economy.

According to an NPR poll, 60% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. A Reuters survey found that 70% of respondents disapprove of his handling of the cost of living.

Data released on June 10 showed that US CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May. Although oil prices have retreated following the US-Iran agreement, Americans are still paying roughly US$1 more per gallon of gasoline than they were before the conflict began at the end of February.

Trump has always been highly focused on “winning” and enjoys showcasing his achievements in grand and attention-grabbing ways.

The 250th anniversary of American independence is a genuinely historic moment with enormous symbolic significance.

The White House appears highly motivated to use every available resource in the short term to improve economic sentiment and stage a “grand and perfect” celebration.

What Has Trump Already Done?

Over the past week, Trump has already demonstrated specific methods of attempting to boost the stock market.

June 18: A Truth Social Post Drives Intel Higher

Trump posted on social media that Apple had agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture chips in the United States.The post immediately sent Intel shares up approximately 9% in pre-market trading, and the stock ultimately closed 10.64% higher, marking a record closing high. Neither company formally confirmed the details of the partnership, but the market responded with real money.

June 15: The US-Iran Agreement Pushes the Dow to a Record High

After Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached a temporary agreement, all three major US stock indices closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at a record high. The S&P 500 gained 1.65%, closing at 7,554.29. Trump later credited the stock market rally to his Iran agreement in social media posts.

June 1: All Four Major US Indices Reach Record Highs

The Dow closed at 51,078.88.The S&P 500 finished at 7,599.96. The Nasdaq closed at 27,086.81.The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ended at 12,965.65. Trump’s comments helped ease market concerns about a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. These actions share several common characteristics: They use social media as the communication channel, focus on specific companies or industries as anchor points, and rely on policy signals as the underlying justification. No congressional legislation is required. No administrative process is necessary.

A single Truth Social post can send a stock up 10%.Worth Noting: The Market Is Playing Along

According to EPFR Global data cited by Bank of America strategists, US equity funds attracted a record US$119.2 billion in inflows during the week ending June 17.

Technology stocks alone received US$19.2 billion in inflows, also a record high.Yet during the same week, Trump’s approval rating increased only marginally from 35% to 36%.The market is rising, but voters have not yet been convinced.Ironically, this may itself provide a reason to keep pushing stocks higher — the gains may not yet be large enough to translate into votes.

From June 22 to July 4, there are still twelve days remaining.

Trump has a variety of tools at his disposal, including social media messaging, policy announcements, and executive actions.

The market has already responded with US$119.2 billion in weekly inflows and multiple record highs across major indices.

Historically, however, rising stock prices do not automatically translate into higher presidential approval ratings — particularly when inflation remains elevated and real purchasing power continues to decline.

In an NPR poll, a Georgia voter who has voted for Trump in three consecutive elections said:

“A lot of what he promised, we're still waiting for. He hasn't done anything for the economy yet. If anything, he's made it worse.”

Michael Rodriguez brings 14 years of equity market experience with a CFA designation and an MBA in Finance from New York University. His coverage spans global equity markets, with expertise in the technology, healthcare, and financial sectors. He is also a regular contributor to industry journals, writing market commentaries that make complex equity trends accessible to both retail and institutional readers.
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