Canadian Dollar hits fresh monthly lows as the US Dollar rallies in risk-off markets

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USD/CAD rallies to monthly highs above 1.3750 on track for a 0.5% weekly gain.
The Greenback surges across the board on risk-off markets and rising bets of Fed rate hikes.
The Trump-Xi summit has provided additional support to the USD despite the lack of concrete agreements.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, with the USD/CAD pair trading in the mid-range of the 1.3700s after rallying about 0.5% so far this week. A combination of risk-off markets and higher US Treasury yields amid growing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes is providing ideal conditions for Greenback buyers.

The summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has delivered more compliments than concrete agreements, but given the controversial issues of Iran and Taiwan looming over the meeting, a friendly outcome has been considered enough to provide a further boost to the US Dollar.

The Greenback has been drawing support from US macroeconomic data this week, as the strong US inflationary numbers, coupled with resilient Retail Sales figures, have prompted investors to bet on a hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months. The CME FedWatch Tool is now pricing a nearly 50% chance of at least one rate hike before the end of the year, up from less than 15% one week before. This has boosted US Treasury yields and is underpinning speculative demand for the USD.

On the macroeconomic data front, the focus on Friday will be on the Canadian Manufacturing Sales from March, and Housing Starts figures from April, while in the US, a few hours later, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Industrial Production will provide further insight about the strength og the manufacturing sector.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.