Canadian Dollar strengthens as receding Fed rate hike bets weigh US Dollar

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The USD/CAD pair loses momentum to near 1.4145 during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on receding expectations of a rate increase from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

USD/CAD softens to around 1.4145 in Friday’s early European session.
Fed officials were split on the direction of interest rates at the last meeting.
Iranian media said military sites in two cities were targeted in further attacks late Thursday.

The minutes from the Fed's June 16 to 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, showed concern about high inflation mounted among policymakers, and a few participants saw a case to hike the interest rates.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in ‌energy prices over the remainder of the year.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the July meeting eased back to 24.6% from 31% in the prior session, but up from 18.2% a week ago. For the September policy meeting, markets are pricing in a 62.3% probability of a hike, down from the 66.6% on Wednesday but an increase from the 54.1% a week earlier.

Crude oil prices remain elevated amid shopping traffic slowdown in the Strait of Hormuz. Late Thursday, Iranian officials and state media have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility. The reports came after an earlier wave of US strikes, which was followed by Iranian missile fire at a US base in Jordan. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.