Dow Jones futures rise on AI optimism ahead of holiday week

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Dow Jones futures rise ahead of a shortened holiday week.
Wall Street gained due to renewed optimism over AI-related shares.
Traders may adopt caution amid the Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance.

Dow Jones futures gain 0.14% to trade above 48,500 during Monday’s European session, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also advance, edging up 0.35% and 0.53% to roughly 6,910 and 25,700, respectively. However, volumes are expected to remain light as trading enters a holiday-shortened week ahead of Christmas.

US index futures move higher after Wall Street posted strong gains in the previous session, led by outperforming technology stocks. On Friday’s regular session, the Dow Jones rose 0.38%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.88%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.31%, with megacaps extending gains amid renewed optimism surrounding AI-related shares.

Market sentiment may turn cautious amid the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) measured policy outlook. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, according to Bloomberg.

The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 78.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 22.0% from 24.4% a week ago.

Traders are also awaiting United States (US) Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, corporate profits, and industrial production, after last week’s data fueled expectations of further Fed rate cuts next year.

Dow Jones FAQs

What is the Dow Jones?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

What is Dow Theory?

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

How can I trade the DJIA?

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.