EUR/GBP flat lines above 0.8650 as markets await BoE, ECB rate decisions

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The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions later on Thursday.

EUR/GBP holds steady around 0.8660 in Tuesday’s early European session.
BoE is expected to hold rates steady despite inflation risk.
Markets anticipate the ECB holding the key rates on Thursday.

The BoE is likely to keep interest rates steady at 3.75% at its April policy meeting on Thursday as policymakers buy time to assess the risks stemming from the energy crunch. BoE governor Andrew Bailey said in the last meeting that, given the UK’s weak labor market and a lack of corporate pricing power, there was no immediate need to change policy.

However, a UK economist at JPMorgan pointed to strong business activity readings and expansion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in February as underscoring the inflation risks. “We expect the BoE to create space for a potential near-term hike, with incoming data determining whether and when it will act,” he said.

The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on Thursday. While rates are expected to hold, markets anticipate the ECB may signal future hikes to combat persistent inflation. All eyes will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference after the meeting for clues about the outlook for rates.

Goldman Sachs analysts see the ECB delivering two 25 basis point (bps) rate hikes in the months ahead. The first being in June, with the next in September, in bringing the deposit rate back to 2.50%.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.