EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower below 184.50 on intervention fears, bearish momentum persists

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The EUR/JPY cross loses traction to near 184.45 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid fears of currency intervention from Japanese authorities.

EUR/JPY attracts some sellers to around 184.45 in Friday’s early European session.
The negative outlook of the cross remains intact, with bearish RSI momentum.
The immediate resistance level to watch is 184.60; the initial support level is seen at 184.40.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Friday once again delivered verbal intervention, saying that the government is prepared to take decisive action against speculative activity in the foreign exchange market.

Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal could boost a safe-haven currency such as the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. The White House on Friday indicated that the first round of technical talks with Iran under the memorandum of understanding signed this week will not take place on Friday, per CNN.

US Vice President JD Vance said that the meeting wasn’t yet finalized, as it’s difficult for the Iranian officials to get out of Iran. He added that he thought he would travel to Switzerland at some point this weekend.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a modest bearish near-term bias as spot slips back under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Price also trades beneath the 20-day Bollinger SMA, keeping the cross constrained within the upper half of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 signals soft but not extreme downside momentum.

A daily close above the 100-day SMA around 184.60 would pave the way to the mid-Bollinger band near 185.33 and the recent Bollinger upper band peak close to 186.25. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at about 184.40 offers first support; a decisive break below this band would open the door to the May 7 low of 183.50, followed by the March 31 low of 182.83.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.