Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD falls below $4,700 as traders book profits

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Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to around $4,680 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the decline as traders cover losses from equities and adjust positions. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February is due later on Friday.

Gold price faces some selling pressure near $4,680 in Friday’s early Asian session, down 2.70% on the day.
Traders book some profits amid broader market weakness, weighing on the Gold price.
Potential diplomatic talks between the US and Iran in Oman contribute to the downside of precious metals.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME), the world's leading derivatives marketplace, has raised initial margin requirements for Gold and Silver futures contracts again, increasing the amount of collateral traders must post to open and maintain positions. Additionally, falling technology stocks have forced some traders to liquidate gold positions to meet margin requirements, exerting some selling pressure on the yellow metal.

Easing geopolitical tensions also undermines the safe-haven demand for bullion. Irian and US officials confirmed that the two sides will hold talks in Oman on Friday. Market participants will closely monitorgeopolitical developments surrounding the negotiation.

On the other hand, renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve (Fed) independence could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and provide some support to the USD-denominated commodity price. US President said on Thursday that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh as his nominee to lead the US central bank if Warsh had expressed a desire to hike interest rates.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.