Ripple Price Forecast: XRP remains rangebound, held back by weak retail and institutional interest

Cooling demand caps XRP recovery

XRP derivative demand remains subdued, with futures Open Interest (OI) averaging $2.5 billion on Monday. This is a sharp contrast to the July peak of $10.94 billion, highlighting persistent skepticism among retail participants about XRP’s ability to maintain an uptrend over the short to medium term.

Turning to XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which logged outflows totaling $35,210 last week, signals softening interest in related digital investment products. SoSoValue data shows that cumulative inflows stand at $1.29 billion, with net assets averaging $1.06 billion.

Technical outlook: XRP sideways action persists

XRP trades at $1.39 as the price consolidates just under a dense band of moving-average resistance, keeping the near-term bias neutral to slightly bearish. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.41 and the 20-day Bollinger middle band converging at the same level sit immediately overhead, suggesting rallies are being capped within the upper half of the recent volatility envelope.

Momentum is mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the neutral 50 midline on the daily chart and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram slipping marginally into negative territory, hinting at a lack of directional conviction after the latest bounce.

On the topside, initial resistance is at the 50-day EMA near $1.41, which aligns closely with the Bollinger midline boundary. Above that, the Bollinger upper band around $1.47 precedes a more strategic barrier at the descending trendline break level near $1.50, with the 100-day EMA at $1.50 reinforcing medium-term resistance. A sustained move through this cluster would open the way toward the 200-day EMA up at $1.74.

On the downside, immediate support is indicated by the Bollinger lower band around $1.36. A daily close below this level would signal that sellers are regaining control and could expose a deeper retracement within the broader range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Crypto ETF FAQs

What is an ETF?

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.

Is Bitcoin futures ETF approved?

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.

Is Bitcoin spot ETF approved?

Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.

Which are the pros and cons of crypto ETFs?

The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.