USD/CAD holds below 1.3700 amid weak US labor data, higher crude oil prices

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USD/CAD posts modest losses around 1.3685 in Friday’s early European session.
US weekly jobless claims increased more than expected last week; JOLTS job openings plummeted in December.
Higher crude oil prices could underpin the commodity-linked Loonie.

The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses near 1.3685 during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid weaker-than-expected US economic data and a rise in crude oil prices. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February will be in the spotlight later on Friday.

Data released on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week. Meanwhile, US job openings unexpectedly fell in December to the lowest level since 2020, and layoffs rose. Companies revealed the most job cutbacks in January since the Great Recession in 2009. Signs of weakening in the US labor market could drag the Greenback lower against the CAD.

Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical risks could boost crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the CAD.

However, the downside for the pair might be limited amid hawkish shifts in Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership expectations. US President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Fed chair last week. Traders anticipate a slower pace of interest rate cuts under his tenure and a focus on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.