USD/CHF rises toward 0.7900 as renewed risk aversion lifts US Dollar

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USD/CHF extends its winning streak for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.7870 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran conflict.

USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar gains on safe-haven demand amid persistent US–Iran conflict uncertainty.
Israel’s UN ambassador Danny Danon said the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%.”
Markets expect SNB intervention to curb rapid, excessive CHF appreciation.

The Guardian reported on Thursday that Lebanon will push for a one-month extension of the current ceasefire with Israel during a second round of direct talks in Washington. Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Danny Danon, said in a CNN News interview on Friday that the Lebanon ceasefire extension is "not 100%".

The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting to evade its blockade, as Washington presses ahead with efforts to curb Iran’s shipping, while Tehran continues to threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US military officials are also preparing contingency plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait should the current ceasefire collapse.

On the US data front. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K from 212K, indicating continued strength in the labor market. Meanwhile, S&P Global PMIs surprised to the upside, with Manufacturing at 54.0 and Services at 51.3, pointing to sustained expansion in business activity.

Earlier this week, Swiss data showed the Trade Surplus narrowed to CHF 2.7 billion in March, down from a downwardly revised six-month high of CHF 4.4 billion in February. Imports jumped 10.1% MoM to a four-month high of CHF 19.6 billion, while exports increased modestly by 1% to CHF 22.4 billion.

The upside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may find support from safe-haven inflows. Additionally, the CHF may also gain ground as rising concerns over a prolonged energy-driven inflation shock reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Market participants expect the SNB to intervene in FX markets to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the CHF.

Swiss Franc FAQs

What key factors drive the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc?

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc?

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.