USD/JPY Price Forecast: Nears two year high, around 161.75 as intervention risks loom

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The USD/JPY pair catches aggressive bids at the start of a new week and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the early European session.

USD/JPY regains positive traction on Monday as Middle East tensions continue to weigh on the JPY.
Geopolitical uncertainties and the Fed’s hawkish tilt benefit the USD, further supporting spot prices.
Overstretched conditions on the daily chart warrant caution before positioning for additional gains.

The USD/JPY pair catches aggressive bids at the start of a new week and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the early European session. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 161.75 area in the last hour, back closer to the highest level since July 2024 touched on Friday, and is sponsored by a combination of factors.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. This, to a larger extent, overshadows prospects for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and fears that Japanese authorities will step in to prop up the domestic currency. Apart from this, the underlying US Dollar (USD) bullish sentiment, bolstered by geopolitical uncertainties and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY cross.

From a technical perspective, last week's sustained breakout through the previous intervention zone, around the 160.50-160.60 area, comes on top of the recent solid rebound from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and favors bullish traders. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 72 pushes into overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive above the zero line. This hints at firm but potentially overextended upside momentum, making it prudent to wait for some consolidation before positioning for further gains.

In the meantime, immediate support is now seen at the structural pivot around 160.60-160.50. As long as the USD/JPY pair holds above this level, any dips are likely to be treated as corrections within the prevailing bullish structure, though overstretched momentum warns that upside progress could become more gradual or prone to short-term reversals. That said, the 200-day EMA at 156.32 should provide a deeper layer of trend support if a sharper corrective pullback unfolds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		1.51%	1.80%	1.75%	2.92%	2.16%	2.65%	2.78%
EUR	-1.51%		0.29%	0.24%	1.36%	0.65%	1.14%	1.28%
GBP	-1.80%	-0.29%		-0.04%	1.14%	0.37%	0.88%	1.01%
JPY	-1.75%	-0.24%	0.04%		1.12%	0.45%	0.93%	0.95%
CAD	-2.92%	-1.36%	-1.14%	-1.12%		-0.65%	-0.19%	-0.13%
AUD	-2.16%	-0.65%	-0.37%	-0.45%	0.65%		0.50%	0.61%
NZD	-2.65%	-1.14%	-0.88%	-0.93%	0.19%	-0.50%		0.12%
CHF	-2.78%	-1.28%	-1.01%	-0.95%	0.13%	-0.61%	-0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).