USD/JPY Price Forecast: Sits near one-month high, below 160.00 intervention threshold

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The USD/JPY pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Tuesday and currently trades around the 159.70-159.75 region, or over a one-month top.

USD/JPY consolidates its recent strong move higher to over a one-month high.
Economic risks stemming from Mideast tensions continue to weigh on the JPY.
Intervention fears and a modest USD downtick cap further gains for spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Tuesday and currently trades around the 159.70-159.75 region, or over a one-month top. Economic concerns stemming from the Middle East continue to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a tailwind for the currency pair.

However, speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel eases fears of a broader regional conflict and dents the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status, which contributes to capping the USD/JPY pair.

The overnight move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May downfall was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls against the backdrop of the recent solid bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moreover, momentum indicators suggest that the outlook is still constructive and backs the case for appreciation for the USD/JPY pair.

In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trades in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 reinforces the bullish tone without yet signalling overbought conditions. This set the stage for a move towards the recent swing high at 160.70 that bulls need to clear to extend the advance.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 159.51, followed by the 61.8% level at 158.57 and the 50.0% retracement at 157.92, where dips could attract buying interest. Deeper losses would expose the 38.2% retracement at 157.26 and the 23.6% level at 156.45, ahead of a stronger demand area defined by the 200-day EMA at 155.69.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	0.29%	0.51%	0.30%	-0.15%	-1.02%	0.36%
EUR	0.02%		0.31%	0.56%	0.30%	-0.13%	-0.98%	0.38%
GBP	-0.29%	-0.31%		0.26%	-0.02%	-0.39%	-1.28%	0.08%
JPY	-0.51%	-0.56%	-0.26%		-0.22%	-0.66%	-1.52%	-0.17%
CAD	-0.30%	-0.30%	0.02%	0.22%		-0.45%	-1.35%	0.08%
AUD	0.15%	0.13%	0.39%	0.66%	0.45%		-0.85%	0.48%
NZD	1.02%	0.98%	1.28%	1.52%	1.35%	0.85%		1.40%
CHF	-0.36%	-0.38%	-0.08%	0.17%	-0.08%	-0.48%	-1.40%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).