AUD/JPY Price Forecast: First upside barrier emerges near 102.00, bullish momentum builds

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The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 101.20 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid fiscal concerns and the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy tightening path.

AUD/JPY gathers strength to near 101.20 in Tuesday’s early European session.
A constructive outlook prevails above the 100-day EMA, with the bullish RSI indicator.
The immediate resistance level is seen at 102.00; the crucial downside target is located at 100.75.

Nonetheless, some verbal intervention from Japanese authorities might cap the upside for the cross in the near term. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Japan sees intervention in the foreign exchange market as a possibility in dealing with excessively volatile and speculative moves in the JPY. Traders will keep an eye on the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for October on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY trades at 101.25. Price holds above the 100-day EMA at 98.19, and the average slopes upward, confirming a bullish bias. RSI at 58.08 is positive and has eased from 59.66, leaving room before overbought. Spot remains above the middle Bollinger Band at 100.75 and below the upper band at 102.00. The bands are edging higher with a steady span, signaling persistent but orderly bullish pressure.

Upside would meet initial resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 102.00, while immediate support stands at the middle band at 100.75 and deeper support at the lower band at 99.50. A daily close above 102.00 could extend the advance, whereas a pullback holding 100.75 would keep the uptrend intact; a drop toward 99.50 would signal a broader correction. The 100-day EMA at 98.19 underpins the medium-term bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.