China’s exports contracted for the first time since February and imports slowed more than expected in October. The slowdown in October trade was partly due to an additional day of holiday in October this year compared to 2024 while intensified trade tensions with the US added to the uncertainties, UOB Group's Economist Ho Woei Chen reports.

Outlook to stabilize amid trade truce

"Total exports unexpectedly fell -1.1% y/y in USD-terms (Bloomberg est: 2.9%, September: 8.3%) and -0.8% y/y in CNY-terms (September: 8.4%). Imports grew 1.0% y/y (Bloomberg est: 2.7%, September: 7.4%) in USD-terms and 1.4% y/y (September: 7.5%) in CNYterms. China’s trade surplus narrowed slightly to US$90.07 bn from US$90.45 bn in September."

"Exports to the US contracted by double-digit pace for the 7th consecutive month since Apr. The decline narrowed slightly to -25.2% y/y in October from -27.0% y/y in September, bringing the YTD contraction to -17.8% y/y. In October, export growth was led by markets such as Vietnam (+22.4%), Hong Kong (+20.9%), Singapore (+16.8%) and South Africa (+14.3%). Overall, ASEAN remained the largest market for Chinese goods, accounting for 17.5% share. Exports to the EU moderated with growth slowing to 0.9% y/y from 14.2% y/y in September."

"By key products, the strongest export growth was seen in ships, rare earths, motor vehicles, semiconductors and LCD panels which grew at a double-digit pace in October. On the other hand, contractions continued to be the worst for consumer goods such as toys, footwear, handbags and garments. This likely suggests the shift in some of these demand to other overseas production due to US’ tariffs. China increased its rare earth export in October amid its tensions with the US. In volume terms, rare earth shipments rose 8.6% compared to September, to 4,343 tons in October after falling noticeably in the three preceding months."