EUR/USD remains around 1% undervalued according to our short-term fair value model, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Probability of a major revamp in EUR/USD volatility remains low

"That shows that the rally in the US Dollar (USD) – net of last week’s correction – has still exceeded what can be justified by market drivers like rates and equity differentials. However, the euro is lacking bullish thrust and – as discussed above – a potential end to the US shutdown is not a clear-cut USD negative."

"Today’s eurozone calendar includes the ZEW surveys in Germany. These have not sent the kind of optimistic vibe of the Ifo, and consensus is looking at a modest improvement to 41 in the expectation index and to -78 in the current situation index."

"We continue to look at 1.150 as a floor and see room for stabilisation close to 1.160 based on our short-term valuation indicators, but the probability of a major revamp in depressed EUR/USD volatility remains low this week."