NZD/USD tumbles below 0.5650 on RBNZ rate cut bets

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The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive near 0.5630 during the early European session on Wednesday. Expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) exert some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the Greenback.

NZD/USD slumps to around 0.5630 in Wednesday’s early European session, down 0.50% on the day.
RBNZ rate cut bets exert some selling pressure on the Kiwi.
The FOMC Minutes from the latest meeting and the delayed US September NFP report will be the highlights later this week.

New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.3% in the September quarter, indicating a softening labor market. This, along with a struggling domestic economy and a weakening inflation outlook, pointed to underlying weakness in the economy and boosted the RBNZ rate cut bets. Markets are largely pricing in a 25 basis point reduction to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by the RBNZ at its November meeting next week.

Traders await the FOMC minutes from the latest meeting and the delayed US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. FOMC Minutes are scheduled for Wednesday, and they could offer some insights into the Fed's monetary policy discussions. If the minutes suggest that the Fed is leaning towards hawkish or is more cautious about cutting the interest rates, it could lift the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair.

All eyes will be on the US NFP data on Thursday. For the delayed US September NFP data, the market consensus is for 50,000 jobs added in September, compared to 22,000 in August. The Unemployment Rate in the US is projected to stay at 4.3% during the same period. In case of a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could raise concerns over the US labor market and weaken the USD against the NZD.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.