Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD declines to near $39.00 on firmer US Dollar

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The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers to around $39.00 during the early European session on Friday. Optimism surrounding the US trade deal allayed trade war concerns and dampened demand for safe-haven assets.

Silver price drifts lower to near $39.00 in Friday’s early European session.
Easing trade tensions and hope for a fresh US trade deal undermine the Silver price.
Investors brace for the Fed interest rate decision next week for fresh impetus.

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding trade talks between the United States (US) and its major trade partners. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday that US President Donald Trump is now pursuing dealmaking with China. Trump might shift from a strategy of pressure to negotiation, with the goal of securing an economic agreement that will increase US access to Chinese markets, particularly in business and technology.

Additionally, risk sentiment improved after the Financial Times noted that the European Union (EU) is close to sealing a deal with Washington, with some similarities to the one signed by Tokyo. The prospect of a new US deal and progress in tariff negotiations could weigh on the safe-haven asset like silver.

Traders reduce their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a rate cut in the July meeting, expecting less than two reductions this year as jobless claims fell for six consecutive weeks. Markets largely believe that the Fed will stay on hold when it meets next week but that it will likely cut rates in September and once more before the end of the year. The cautious stance of the US central bank could underpin the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price, as it makes silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.