USD/CAD steadies near 1.3900 as strong US data supports Fed pause

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USD/CAD holds steady as strong US data bolsters expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold.
US Retail Sales rose 0.6% to $735.9 billion in November, beating expectations after October’s 0.1% decline.
The commodity-linked CAD finds support as WTI Oil prices rise amid persistent tensions in Iran.

USD/CAD remains in the positive territory for the third successive session, trading around 1.3890 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from stronger-than-expected US economic data. Traders will monitor the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report later on Thursday, alongside remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that Retail Sales rose more than expected to $735.9 billion in November, up 0.6%, following a 0.1% contraction in October and beating market expectations of a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot in November, with both headline and core measures reaching 3% year-over-year (YoY).

Together with last week’s data showing the US Unemployment Rate easing to 4.4% in December, these releases reinforce the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates on hold for the coming months, potentially supporting the US Dollar (USD). In response, Morgan Stanley analysts delayed their expectations for rate cuts to June and September from January and April following Friday’s jobs report.

The upside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher Oil prices, given the status of Canada’s largest crude exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading around $60.20 at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices gain ground amid persistent tensions in Iran. Traders will closely monitor the latest geopolitical developments surrounding the Iranian civil unrest.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.