WTI holds steady near $63.50 as optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace fades

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds ground after two days of gains, trading around $63.40 during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices were largely unchanged, with waning hopes for an immediate Russia-Ukraine peace deal underpinning the risk premium demanded by Oil sellers.

WTI steadies as fading prospects for an immediate Russia-Ukraine peace deal support the risk premium.
Traders turn cautious amid Russian airstrikes near the EU border and Ukrainian strikes on a Russian Oil refinery.
US increases pressure on India over Russian crude imports, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 27.

Reuters cited analysts at ING, saying in a client note on Friday, "It's proving difficult to set up a Putin-Zelenskiy summit, while discussions around potential security guarantees face obstacles," "The less likely a ceasefire looks, the more likely the risk of tougher (US) sanctions" on Russia.

The market sentiment remains cautious after reports of Russian airstrikes near the European Union (EU) border and Ukrainian attacks on a Russian Oil refinery. Moscow has demanded major concessions, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected giving up any territory.

Oil prices may regain their ground as the United States (US) increases pressure on India over Russian crude imports, announcing a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 27. Crude accounts for nearly 35% of India’s imports.

The demand for Oil could face challenges amid easing odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September. The higher borrowing cost negatively impacts the economic activities in the United States, the world’s largest economy, which affects Oil requirements.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate reduction in September, down from 82% on Wednesday. The rate cut likelihood reduced following the strong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and rising Initial Jobless Claims data from the United States (US).

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.