WTI Price Forecast: Bearish bias persists below $61.50

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WTI crude edges lower near $61.00, giving back all of Monday’s gains.
OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected 137 kbpd output hike eases supply concerns but fails to boost prices.
Technical bias stays bearish below $61.50, with key supports at $60.22 and $59.39.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil edges lower on Tuesday, giving back the previous day’s gains as traders weigh the modest OPEC+ production hike against persistent oversupply concerns and subdued global demand. At the time of writing, WTI is changing hands near $61.00 per barrel, down nearly 0.85% on the day, as a firmer US Dollar (USD) also caps upside momentum.

On the fundamental side, sentiment remains fragile despite OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected output hike of 137,000 barrels per day for November. The modest move has calmed fears of an immediate supply glut, but it has not been enough to spark a sustained rally as global demand concerns persist. Reports of a drone hit on Russia’s Kirishi refinery have added a touch of geopolitical risk premium, but flows remain largely unaffected so far.

Traders are also looking ahead to the American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report, due later Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday for near-term cues.

On the technical front, WTI remains vulnerable below the $61.50 level, which has turned into near-term resistance after previously acting as support since early August. The commodity continues to trade below the 21, 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the daily chart, underscoring a prevailing bearish structure.

A sustained drop below $61.00 could pave the way for a retest of the $60.22 low hit last week, the lowest level since May 30, with further losses potentially extending toward the May 30 swing low at $59.39.

Momentum indicators also underscore the fragile tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 42, indicating a weak buying impulse, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains below zero despite showing tentative signs of flattening. Unless prices close back above $61.50–62.00, any recovery is likely to be viewed as corrective rather than signaling a shift in trend.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.