According to an official statement released by White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Kelly on May 11, Trump will arrive in Beijing on the evening of Wednesday, May 13. On Thursday morning, May 14, he will attend a welcome ceremony and hold bilateral talks with Xi Jinping, followed by a state banquet in the evening, before concluding the visit on May 15.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated when announcing the visit that the two leaders will “exchange in-depth views on major issues concerning China–U.S. relations as well as world peace and development.”

According to Reuters and advance briefings from U.S. officials, topics under discussion will include Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and other sensitive issues. Both sides may also discuss extending existing agreements related to critical minerals and trade arrangements.

Based on the signals intensively released by all parties, at least five major questions are expected to be placed on tomorrow’s negotiating table.

First Question: Trade and Tariffs

Trade discussions during this summit will most likely focus on three directions:

First, continuing and institutionalizing China–U.S. economic consultation mechanisms to prevent further escalation of tariffs, export controls, investment reviews, and related measures.

Second, China urging the U.S. to stop intensifying actions related to Section 301 investigations, supply chain regulations, and technology and financial restrictions.

Third, expanding practical cooperation in areas such as agricultural products, energy, finance, and corporate exchanges.

These are not demands coming solely from China. The United States has already entered the political cycle ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, and the Trump administration urgently needs a substantial trade agreement to stabilize domestic economic expectations.

According to the negotiation framework currently being discussed, the U.S. side is promoting a “Five B” list — China purchasing Boeing aircraft, U.S. beef, soybeans, as well as establishing bilateral trade and investment committees. China, meanwhile, continues emphasizing the “Three Ts” — tariffs, technology, and Taiwan.

In a May 8 research report, J.P. Morgan outlined a quantitative framework under which China may agree to significantly increase purchases of U.S. soybeans, Boeing aircraft, crude oil, and natural gas in exchange for extending the current truce on tariffs and export controls beyond November 10.

The Guardian offered an even more aggressive report, stating that China is discussing a major Boeing order potentially involving 500 Boeing 737 Max aircraft along with dozens of wide-body jets.

One additional detail worth noting: the Trump administration’s legal authorization for imposing “reciprocal tariffs” expires on May 12 (today). This creates additional timing pressure ahead of tomorrow’s summit — whether tariff tensions are smoothly extended or reignited will largely depend on the outcome of negotiations over the next 72 hours.

Second Question: Technology Export Controls

J.P. Morgan’s report explicitly pointed out that one key focus is whether the Trump administration is willing to further relax export controls and allow China greater access to advanced semiconductors in exchange for China easing restrictions on rare earth exports.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Commerce Department approved exports of Nvidia H200 chips to authorized Chinese customers. However, reports suggest Chinese technology companies have faced obstacles in purchasing those chips, while Beijing has increasingly prioritized domestic semiconductor development. For example, DeepSeek V4, launched on April 24, reportedly uses Huawei Ascend 950 AI chips rather than Nvidia H200s. This effectively strengthens China’s negotiating leverage.

Fudan University analysts summarized the situation bluntly: “The U.S. military industry cannot function without Chinese rare earths. Washington must make concessions on tariffs and chips before China offers meaningful compromises.”

However, even if China and the U.S. initiate AI-related dialogue, Washington is still likely to maintain existing export controls and technology restrictions, since advanced AI chips, computing power, large models, and talent flows remain central to U.S.–China strategic competition.

In other words, a “rare earths for chips” framework may emerge from this summit, but what specific level of chips China could ultimately obtain — whether limited to H200s or extending to Nvidia’s Blackwell series — remains uncertain.

Third Question: Iran

The Iran issue may be the area where China and the US share the closest strategic interests, while also being one of the most urgent topics on the agenda.

However, differences remain. The US emphasizes sanctions, military deterrence, and strict limitations on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, while China focuses more on de-escalation, ceasefires, and political solutions.

That said, neither side wants prolonged disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. The US seeks stability for global markets and allied energy security, while China remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports.

The key uncertainty is whether China can meaningfully persuade Iran to compromise. Managing differences will depend on whether the Iran issue can be separated from broader “great power rivalry” narratives and reframed around crisis management, energy corridor security, and multilateral diplomacy.

Fourth Question: Taiwan

Taiwan remains unavoidable in any high-level China-US dialogue, but both sides appear to have clear expectations this time around.

During a phone call with Trump in February, Xi Jinping reportedly stated that China would “never allow Taiwan to separate from China.” He is expected to urge Trump to reduce US support for Taiwan.

China’s core demand is likely to be a clearer US stance on Taiwan-related issues — specifically, shifting from “not supporting” Taiwan independence to actively “opposing” it.

However, based on signals from Washington, US policy toward Taiwan is unlikely to change significantly. Trump himself has taken a more ambiguous stance on Taiwan compared with previous US presidents, at times describing Taiwan as an “economic competitor” rather than a democratic ally.

Taiwan remains highly sensitive and complex, and US policy is not determined solely by the executive branch. Congress also holds substantial influence over Taiwan-related affairs.

As a result, the Taiwan issue will most likely remain a matter of “restating positions and reaffirming red lines,” with little expectation for any major breakthrough.

Fifth Question: Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is the newest and perhaps the most uncertain issue among the five key topics.

According to The New York Times, there are growing concerns that both China and the US are increasingly prioritizing speed over safety in the global AI race.

Both countries have practical reasons to establish AI risk management mechanisms, but the US still views advanced AI chips as central to strategic competition with China.

At the same time, AI competition differs fundamentally from traditional industrial rivalry. It directly impacts nuclear security, biosecurity, cybersecurity, public opinion governance, and military crisis stability.

Therefore, China and the US may first seek cooperation in lower-sensitivity yet high-risk areas, such as preventing AI misuse in military settings, defining boundaries between AI and nuclear command systems, and assessing risks related to model loss of control.

Comprehensive AI governance remains unrealistic in the short term, but discussions around risk management frameworks are possible. This summit is more likely to establish a dialogue mechanism than to produce substantive technical agreements.

Market Reaction Outlook

In its latest weekly report released on May 12, Huatai Securities reviewed 18 China-US leader interactions since 2017 and drew two noteworthy conclusions:

1. A-shares tend to experience elevated volatility within five days after summits, making short-term trading difficult;
2. Following six previous face-to-face summits, the CSI All Share Index declined an average of 2.3% over the subsequent 10 days, with a win rate of only 17%.

From a sector perspective, markets have historically tilted toward defensive positioning after such meetings. Financial stocks delivered positive absolute and excess returns over the following 10 days in every case studied, with a 100% win rate.

Morgan Stanley previously offered scenario analysis suggesting that even in the worst-case scenario — such as the summit being canceled or delayed — market declines would likely remain smaller than the volatility seen during last year’s tariff escalation cycle.

Another important risk factor remains the Middle East. Iran’s proposed 14-point peace initiative has reportedly been rejected by the US, and tensions remain elevated. International oil prices surged sharply on Monday.

This means that even if China and the US reach trade compromises, any escalation in the Middle East during the summit could still pressure global risk assets. In particular, US equity futures, crude oil, and the RMB exchange rate will likely be the three key indicators to watch closely tomorrow.

As for the RMB outlook, expectations remain relatively optimistic. JPMorgan Asset Management stated in its latest report that if the talks achieve substantive progress, the USD/CNY exchange rate could potentially move toward 6.5. Citigroup also maintains a constructive view, believing the summit could accelerate efforts to resolve Middle East tensions while further supporting the RMB and Chinese equities.