As 2025 enters its final stretch, gold’s year-to-date gains have surged past 70%. Spot prices have climbed to a record high of $4,524 per ounce, with the metal rewriting its all-time high around 50 times over the course of the year.

The decline in U.S. Treasury yields signals that capital is flowing into Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. Coupled with a simultaneous rally in gold, this shows that markets are clearly pricing in higher risk and shifting toward defensive positioning. However, the fact that the U.S. dollar – also traditionally seen as a safe haven – is weakening suggests that the perceived source of risk may actually be the United States itself. At the same time, the softer dollar is providing an additional tailwind for gold.

This time, the potential crisis is not about the AI narrative itself, but rather the liquidity risk that could arise if AI capital expenditure proves excessively large while profits fail to keep pace. The real stress point for 2026 is expected to emerge in private credit and the corporate debt market.

Looser underwriting standards and a wall of upcoming maturities are the main sources of risk. A large amount of debt will come due in 2026, and more companies are expected to seek restructurings. Lenders will be forced to renegotiate terms, which could result in negative surprises for investors.

In addition, the Venezuela blockade incident has become a key near-term catalyst for the global gold market. President Trump ordered a full blockade on restricted oil tankers and stepped up U.S. military deployments in the region to increase pressure on Venezuela. His blockade announcement on social media has heightened concerns about an escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Although Venezuela’s crude output has plunged by about 70% over the past 25 years, leaving its production capacity severely diminished and its direct impact on the global energy market relatively limited, this move has significantly intensified geopolitical risk. As a result, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged, providing strong support for prices.

Market commentary:

On the 4-hour chart, gold pulled back after breaking above the $4,500 level, but the MACD lines and histogram remain clustered above the zero line. Goldman Sachs has reiterated its structurally bullish stance on gold, setting a year-end 2026 target of $4,900 per ounce. The bank believes that if under-allocated private investors begin to increase their gold holdings, prices could overshoot this target to the upside.