AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Softens below 111.00, but mildly bullish tone prevails

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The AUD/JPY cross extends the decline to near 110.85 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid cooler-than-expected Australian inflation data and uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks.

AUD/JPY weakens to around 110.85 in Wednesday’s early European session.
The cross keeps a mildly bullish tone in the near-term, with cooling bullish RSI momentum.
The first upside barrier to watch is 113.20; the initial support level is seen at 110.00.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.7% YoY in February, versus 3.8% prior. This figure came in below the market consensus of 3.8%. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI came in at 0% in February, compared to the previous reading of 0.4%, in line with the market consensus.

The Iranian military said on Wednesday that it had fired missiles at Israel as well as military bases hosting US forces in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. This action came as the US sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East. Signs of a prolonged conflict could boost safe-haven currencies such as the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. However, easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict might help limit the Aussie's losses.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the 100-day exponential moving average near 106.90 and continues to respect a broader uptrend structure. RSI has retreated from overbought territory toward the high-40s, indicating a cooling of prior bullish momentum but not yet a decisive shift in favour of sellers.

Immediate support emerges at the recent swing area around 110.00, with a deeper floor at 109.20, while the 108.00 zone guards the 100-day EMA and protects the broader bullish structure. On the upside, initial resistance stands at the recent high near 113.20, followed by 114.50 if upside momentum rebuilds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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