EUR/USD remains firm as markets brace for a packed week of events, including the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, EU Council decisions on Ukraine reparations and Mercosur, and key eurozone data releases. Resistance at 1.1750/60 will likely determine whether the pair can test 1.1800, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EU Council meeting key for Ukraine loan, Mercosur deal

"EUR/USD is holding onto last week's gains. Not only do we have an ECB meeting, but we also have a European Council meeting. Here, EU leaders will be trying to sign off on a reparations loan for Ukraine and also a Mercosur trade deal. The meeting is going to prove a key litmus test of whether Europe can get stuff done or be subject to local interests, such as Belgium on the Ukraine loan or French farmers on Mercosur."

"Away from politics, we also have a lively data calendar. Tomorrow marks the release of the flash PMIs for December, which will reveal whether recent optimism holds into the final month of the year. And after November's final CPI release on Thursday, the week concludes with a look at eurozone consumer confidence on Friday. Better confidence will have to be a key driver of eurozone growth in 2026, given the high savings ratios of the region's consumers."

"1.1750/60 is now important intra-week resistance for EUR/USD, and the NFP data and the ECB meeting will likely be the two largest determinants of whether EUR/USD ends the week on our preferred target of 1.1800."