• The New Zealand Dollar pulls back at the start of the week as risk appetite softens.
• Strong Chinese trade data fails to generate sustained demand for cyclical currencies.
• Diverging monetary paths between the RBNZ and the Fed nevertheless help limit the downside.

NZD/USD declines on Monday, trading around 0.5770 at the time of writing, down 0.10% on the day. After briefly touching 0.5790, the pair erased its earlier gains as market sentiment turned more cautious.

China’s trade surplus largely exceeded expectations in November, reaching $111.68 billion. This result, driven by a 5.9% YoY increase in exports, highlights the resilience of Chinese external demand. However, the improvement was not enough to sustain the New Zealand Dollar's (NZD) upward momentum, as markets trimmed risk exposure in the absence of additional catalysts.

The US Dollar (USD) remains indecisive ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Markets are pricing nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, while also considering further reductions in 2026. Recent inflation readings, combined with mixed labour indicators, have encouraged caution and limited directional positioning across risk-linked currency pairs.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), for its part, has signaled the end of its easing cycle after a rate cut in November. Governor Anna Breman reiterated last week that the institution remains “fully focused on inflation,” reinforcing the view of a stable monetary stance in the coming months. This stance, relatively more restrictive than what is expected from the Fed, helps cushion the downside in NZD/USD.

In this environment, the pair’s next moves will largely depend on Fed President Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday, as well as the Fed’s updated economic projections outlining the policy path into 2026.