Last night, rumors circulated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce his resignation at an emergency meeting to be held at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday. However, this news has mainly spread on social media and has not been backed by any official statements or mainstream media. That said, at 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on Tuesday (December 1), Powell is indeed scheduled to speak at a commemorative event, which will be the last chance for markets to glean hints about the central bank’s intentions before the blackout period.

At the October monetary policy meeting, there were “serious divisions” within the Fed on what action to take in December. Markets will be watching closely to see whether Powell offers fresh signals on the likelihood of a rate cut in December, his assessment of the economic outlook, and how he views the recent gaps in data (caused by the previous US government shutdown).

In addition, this Friday (December 5), the US will release the core PCE price index for September, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This data is the last official inflation report the Fed will have before its December rate-setting meeting and will be of extremely high reference value in deciding whether to cut rates in December. Markets expect the year-on-year growth of core PCE in September to fall back to 2.8% (from the previous 2.9%), with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it could reinforce market confidence in a December rate cut; conversely, if it exceeds expectations, it may stoke concerns that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently assign an 80.2% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December.

According to the schedule, the Fed will hold its FOMC policy meeting from December 9 to 10. After the meeting concludes, the rate decision will be announced at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, followed by Powell’s press conference at 3:30 a.m.

With a 15-basis-point cut already priced in by the market, any hawkish remarks from Powell could frighten investors. The wording Powell uses at the press conference will be crucial, as he will bear the responsibility of explaining the decision, bridging internal differences, and guiding market expectations.