• WTI Crude Oil futures briefly spiked above $115 while spot holds near $104 on Trump's Iran threat
• Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges by midnight Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
• WTI futures surged nearly 12% last Thursday; spot crude rallied but is holding well below futures near $104.
• Iran rejected both the ultimatum and a Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire proposal.

WTI Crude Oil saw sharply diverging price action across the spot and futures markets on Monday. May futures spiked to about $115 in early dealing, before pulling back near $112, roughly flat against Thursday's settlement. In the spot market, price traded in a tighter range, slipping 0.2% to settle near $104 after touching a session high close to $106 and a low around $101. The widening gap between spot and front-month futures reflects the extreme backwardation gripping Crude Oil markets, with traders pricing a significant near-term delivery premium tied directly to Tuesday's deadline.

President Trump issued an expletive-laden threat on Truth Social on Sunday, warning that Tuesday would be "Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one" if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 pm Eastern Time. Trump said a deal was still possible but added that if one is not reached, "I am blowing up everything." Iran rejected the ultimatum; the country's Foreign Ministry spokesman said negotiations cannot proceed under threats of war crimes, and a deputy in the president's office said the Strait would only reopen after reparations for war damage are paid. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to most commercial shipping since late February, when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, removing an estimated 17 to 18 million barrels per day from normal transit flows.

A Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire proposal was put to both sides over the weekend, with foreign ministers from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey shuttling messages between Washington and Tehran. Iranian officials rejected the proposal, and mediators are said to be less optimistic that any deal is close before Tuesday's deadline. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported US crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels for the week ending March 27, and OPEC+ approved a 206K barrels-per-day output hike for April, but neither bearish factor has been able to offset the geopolitical risk premium, which Goldman Sachs estimates sits between $14 and $18 per barrel.

WTI Spot 5-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $103.97. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds comfortably above the rising 200-period exponential moving average near $102.90, confirming an intraday uptrend structure despite the latest pullback. The earlier push toward the $104.80 area coincided with a Stochastic RSI peak above 80, and the oscillator has since retreated toward oversold territory, indicating fading upside momentum but not a full trend reversal while price stays above the long-term intraday average.

Immediate support emerges at $104.00, with a break lower exposing the 200-period EMA region around $102.90 as the next key intraday floor, followed by deeper support near $102.50. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the recent high at $104.80, and a clear move above this level would reopen the path toward the $105.50 zone. As long as $102.90 holds on closing bases, dip-buying interest is likely to prevail on this timeframe, while a decisive drop through that level would neutralize the current bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)