USD/JPY remains subdued near 153.50 due to safe-haven demand

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USD/JPY extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 153.50 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground amid increased safe-haven demand, driven by a global selloff in risk assets.

USD/JPY depreciates as the Japanese Yen gains on increased safe-haven demand.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reaffirmed that authorities are closely monitoring FX volatility and cautioned against sharp, one-sided movements.
The US Dollar faces challenges amid the ongoing US government shutdown.

Global stocks and other risk assets fell under pressure as worries grew over inflated AI valuations. The risk aversion increases after warnings from major Wall Street bank CEOs about potential market pullbacks.

Additionally, JPY receives support from renewed verbal intervention, as Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities are closely watching FX volatility and warned against sharp, one-sided moves. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan has not yet achieved sustainable inflation supported by wage growth, suggesting a cautious stance on further rate hikes.

The USD/JPY pair also loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) loses some ground after five days of gains, driven by the ongoing US government shutdown. Traders adopt caution as the deadlock has now entered its sixth week and is poised to become the longest federal funding lapse in US history after the Senate once again failed to pass a short-term funding bill. The most recent attempt to resolve the standoff, Republican-backed temporary legislation, was rejected by the Senate for the 14th time on Tuesday.

The US Dollar may regain its ground due to the cautious sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance for December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated during last week’s post-meeting press conference that another rate cut in December remains uncertain. Powell also cautioned that policymakers might need to adopt a wait-and-see stance until the release of new official data resumes.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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