China’s economy grows 1.2% QoQ in Q4 2025 vs 1.0% expected

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China’s economy expanded 1.2% QoQ in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, compared to a 1.1% growth in Q3, the official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. The figure came in above the market consensus of 1.0%.

On an annual basis, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 4.5% in Q4 after advancing 4.8% in the previous quarter, stronger than the market expectation of 4.4% print.

China’s annual December Retail Sales increased by 0.9% versus 1.2% expected and 1.3% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 5.2% versus 5.0% estimate and November’s reading of 4.8%.

Meanwhile, the Fixed Asset Investment fell 3.8% year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) in December vs. a decrease of 3.0% expected and a decline of 2.6% in the previous reading.

AUD/USD reaction to China’s data dump

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges slightly higher in an immediate reaction to the China’s GDP and activity data. At the time of press, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.02% on the day at 0.6686.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.20%	-0.08%	-0.24%	-0.13%	-0.01%	-0.22%	-0.48%
EUR	0.20%		0.13%	-0.02%	0.07%	0.18%	-0.02%	-0.28%
GBP	0.08%	-0.13%		-0.15%	-0.05%	0.04%	-0.13%	-0.40%
JPY	0.24%	0.02%	0.15%		0.09%	0.21%	0.01%	-0.25%
CAD	0.13%	-0.07%	0.05%	-0.09%		0.12%	-0.08%	-0.35%
AUD	0.01%	-0.18%	-0.04%	-0.21%	-0.12%		-0.21%	-0.47%
NZD	0.22%	0.02%	0.13%	-0.01%	0.08%	0.21%		-0.27%
CHF	0.48%	0.28%	0.40%	0.25%	0.35%	0.47%	0.27%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

This section was published on Sunday at 23:36 GMT as a preview of China's Trade Balance data.

China quarterly GDP Overview

The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data at 02.00 GMT on Monday. China quarterly GDP is estimated to grow 1.0% in the fourth quarter (Q4), compared to an expansion of 1.1% in Q3. On an annual basis, the Chinese economy is forecast to expand 4.4% versus 4.8% prior.

The GDP data is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity.

Meanwhile, Retail Sales are expected to show an increase of 1.2% year-over-year (YoY) in December, compared to 1.3% in the previous reading. Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.0% YoY in the same period versus 4.8% prior.

How could the China quarterly GDP affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to the China quarterly GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production data. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar strengthens after improving US labor market data have pushed back expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts until June.

If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the January 15 high of 0.6710. The next resistance level emerges at the January 13 high of 0.6727, en route to the January 7 high of 0.6767.

To the downside, the January 9 low of 0.6663 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the December 8 low of 2024 at 0.6614. The next contention level is located at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6595.

GDP FAQs

What is GDP and how is it recorded?

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

How does GDP influence currencies?

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold?

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

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