[TMGM Financial Breakfast] Gold Surges in a Single Day and Tests the Five-Thousand-Dollar Level as Macro Data, Policy Expectations, and Market Structure Continue to Wrestle!

As buyers react to persistent geopolitical risks and a lack of clarity on future policy direction, gold has regained attention. After a sharp pullback, gold is trying to stabilize, with prices showing signs of rebounding from recent lows.

The latest weekly gold survey shows Wall Street has regained confidence in gold’s near-term strength, saying last week’s pullback in both gold and silver was excessive. Fundamentally, nothing has changed for gold — only the price has.

Saxo Bank said it has already seen most of the market deleveraging, and there will be more back-and-forth volatility in the coming weeks; after such a large drop, that would be normal. But because the main drivers of gold are still in place — and the selloff has created buying opportunities for those on the sidelines — the trend will tilt upward. Price swings may remain elevated for a time. From a medium-term perspective, precious-metal prices are well supported.

The bullish fundamental backdrop remains very solid, but the market needs a period of sideways trading to ensure that the speculative frenzy sweeping through the metals space has truly ended.

Gold’s volatility reflects investors’ deep uncertainty. Although in the short term gold may remain below five thousand dollars per ounce, it could still rise to six thousand dollars by year-end.

The market has not exhausted its bullish drivers. However, investors have become more selective and cautious, which means future gains may be less impulsive and less interrupted by sharp corrections. Instead, upside is likely to be driven more by fundamentals than by pure momentum or speculation. The precious-metals market is currently going through a repositioning phase rather than a trend reversal. The current consolidation reflects investor caution after a strong rise, while also confirming the soundness of gold’s underlying foundation.

Market swings are healthy, especially after a strong rebound. The technical outlook remains optimistic. While the U.S. dollar may be firm for now, rate cuts in the coming months will weaken the dollar — or at least prevent it from rising further.

Market Interpretation:

On the four-hour timeframe, gold continues to rebound, with the MACD lines and histogram expanding around the zero axis. As volatility stabilizes, prices are expected to fluctuate between $4,700 and $5,000. For gold to turn clearly bullish again, it may need a new catalyst, such as weaker economic data, clearer signals of rate cuts, or renewed geopolitical tensions. As gold finds a new base, investors still see buying opportunities.