As early as May this year, OPEC+ launched an assessment of member states’ maximum sustainable production capacity, with the goal of providing a basis for setting output quotas for 2027. Since production levels for the coming months have already been fixed, delegates say this longer-term review is likely to be a key focus of Sunday’s meeting.

This assessment is looking increasingly necessary because some OPEC+ members have struggled this year to increase supply in line with the agreement, suggesting they may already be close to their production limits. Clarifying their full capacity will help align quotas with reality and make any future production cuts more credible.

In the face of mounting signs of a global oil glut and downward pressure on crude prices, OPEC may be tested in 2026 on whether to launch a new round of production cuts.

At present, crude oil prices have fallen below 60 US dollars per barrel. In a report released on Monday, JPMorgan said the alliance may need to implement substantial output cuts next year to prevent prices from sliding into the 40-dollar range.

However, the capacity review has also become a source of friction within the group: some countries are pushing to raise estimates of their own capabilities, while others refuse to acknowledge that they cannot produce as much oil as they claim. Back in 2023, disagreements over this very process prompted Angola, a long-standing OPEC member, to leave the organization.

Although OPEC leader Saudi Arabia has the ability to significantly increase output, the outlook for other producers is less clear. The UAE and Iraq have been eager to expand capacity, while some members such as Russia are constrained by sanctions.

Market Commentary:

Unless geopolitical risks make the group’s oil supply outlook more transparent—for example, through US sanctions on Russia and a tougher stance toward Venezuela—OPEC+ is unlikely to adjust its current policy.