OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Pound (GBP) remains resilient to local political developments and fiscal risks, supported by foreign inflows into gilts and the Bank of England’s (BoE) reluctance to ease policy amid resilient growth and disinflation. Attention turns to Andy Burnham’s choice of Chancellor and fiscal approach, with markets focused on Autumn Budget execution. They maintain a neutral view on GBP and a broadly flat EUR/GBP profile.

Carry and policy keep Pound supported

"GBP stays supported by carry and steady growth. Fiscal clarity from the incoming leadership is key. Markets want delivery at the Autumn Budget. For now, we remain neutral with EUR/GBP broadly range-bound."

"The GBP has proven resilient to local political developments and associated fiscal risks. Carry support from foreign inflows into gilts should be in place for longer, as the BoE remains reluctant to ease policy amid resilient growth – even with ongoing disinflation."

"Attention now turns to prime ministerial candidate Andy Burnham’s choice of Chancellor and fiscal approach. Early signals suggest continuity with the current fiscal framework, but markets will place greater weight on execution at the Autumn Budget than on early guidance."

"In Manchester, Burnham pledged to stick to existing fiscal rules while prioritising re-industrialisation and devolution. We maintain a neutral view on GBP, reflected in a broadly flat EUR/GBP profile."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)