布伦特：霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭提升价格前景 – 荷兰合作银行

布伦特：霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭提升价格前景 – 荷兰合作银行

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荷兰合作银行研究部全球经济与市场更新了布伦特原油的前景，假设霍尔木兹海峡将继续关闭数月，可能在九月重新开放。

荷兰合作银行研究部全球经济与市场更新了其布伦特原油展望，假设霍尔木兹海峡将关闭数月，可能于九月重新开放。该行强调全球库存减少、替代供应竞争加剧以及需求破坏上升。现预计布伦特油价在2026年第三季度平均为120美元/桶，第四季度为100美元/桶，2027年则将回落。

供应中断推动布伦特油价上调

“我们的新基线假设霍尔木兹海峡将关闭数月，九月重新开放看起来是更现实的时间表。”

“这对能源市场的影响重大。期货市场可能会继续忽视长期关闭所带来的实际供应现实——尤其是全球库存减少、在竞争加剧下对替代供应的争夺及价格上涨，以及整体需求破坏的逐步加剧。”

“因此，我们上调了关键能源市场的价格预测，以反映地面供应中断的持续影响。对于布伦特原油，我们现预测2026年第三季度价格平均为120美元/桶，第四季度为100美元/桶，2027年全年将回落至100美元/桶以下。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，编辑审核。）

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