布伦特：支撑位于96美元，尾部风险高于200美元 – 法国兴业银行

布伦特：支撑位于96美元，尾部风险高于200美元 – 法国兴业银行

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法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）商品团队指出，布伦特原油已跌破50日移动平均线，正在测试约96美元的支撑位。

法国兴业银行商品团队指出，布伦特原油已跌破50日移动均线，正在测试约96美元的支撑位。他们绘制了几种霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的情景，早期解决方案指向年底布伦特接近85美元，后期结果暗示价格可能飙升至150–160美元，而低概率的长期中断情景则可能使布伦特超过每桶200美元。

霍尔木兹情景推动价格路径大幅波动

“布伦特上周在约113美元附近形成了一个较低的高点，并首次自1月以来跌破了50日移动均线。”

“5月早些时候触及的低点约为96美元，作为临时支撑。”

“如果布伦特未能守住该支撑，可能形成更深的下跌趋势，目标为自3月以来上升趋势线附近的91/90美元和86美元。”

“总结：6月初重新开放将推动布伦特稳步下跌至年底约85美元/桶。”

“霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭至年底的低概率事件意味着布伦特可能突破200美元/桶。”

（本文借助人工智能工具生成，并由编辑审核。）

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